According to The Economist’s analysis of polling data spanning Democratic and Republican presidential primaries from 1980 to 2016, polls taken this far away from nomination conventions are more wrong than right. Our statistical model estimates that just 35% of primary polls fielded 65 weeks before a party’s nomination convention put the eventual winner in the lead. There is a caveat, though. Although polls this early do not pick the winner very often, they do often correctly place the candidate in the right tier. In polls taken as far in advance as today is from the 2020 convention, the eventual winner was among the top three contenders 85% of the time. The current field is unusual, though, and might defy this pattern. There are a lot of candidates, half a dozen of them look plausible and there is no overwhelming favourite.
If not now, when should you start paying attention to the primaries? According to our number-crunching, polls start picking the right winner more than half of the time 52 weeks before the convention, or about in mid-July of this year. By that point, most candidates have announced that they are running, the winners and losers are just a couple of spots from their finishing position and more voters have tuned in. Until then, the day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations in the race are not as important as headline writers and Washington politicos would have you believe.