Hikes in the cost of petrol are fuelling unrest in Iran

THE IRANIAN government seemed to know that its decision to hike the price of heavily subsidised fuel would be met with widespread anger. It waited until midnight on November 15th, the start of the Iranian weekend, to unveil the move: a 50% increase on the price of the first 60 litres of petrol purchased each month, and a 300% increase on purchases above 60 litres. But it may have been surprised by the intensity of the protests that followed.

Across the country protesters have blocked traffic, torched banks and burnt petrol stations. The worst unrest has occurred in Khuzestan, an oil-rich province with a high poverty rate. Some protesters have called for the downfall of President Hassan Rouhani; others want Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, to go. “Mullahs get lost,” they shout, while burning portraits of Iran’s clerical rulers.

The regime is not backing down. It has responded with force in some places. Six people are reported to have been killed. The internet has been turned off. Many politicians tried to deflect blame for the decision to hike petrol prices, but Mr Khamenei shut them down by publicly backing the move on November 17th. He called the protesters “thugs” and blamed the unrest on “all of the centres of villainy around the world that oppose us.”

Mr Khamenei, though, said he wasn’t an “expert” on petrol subsidies. Other lawmakers said they were not consulted and blamed Mr Rouhani for making the move. His government has struggled to deal with American sanctions, reimposed last year after Donald Trump ditched the deal that curbed Iran’s nuclear programme in return for economic relief. Mr Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign has cut Iran off from the global economy. "Iran is experiencing one of its hardest years since the 1979 Islamic revolution," said Mr Rouhani last week. Faced with plummeting oil revenues, officials said they had no choice but to reduce petrol subsidies.

The savings would be distributed as financial aid to 18m poor households, said officials. But the inflationary effects of the price rise risk wiping out most of the benefit. Many fear that growing transport costs will push up the price of groceries. Inflation is already running at 40%. Iran’s currency has plummeted against the dollar over the past year, shrinking purchasing power. Mr Khamenei called on the government to prevent the prices of other goods from increasing.

Mr Rouhani is no stranger to protests. Over 20 Iranians were killed during demonstrations two years ago after the government increased the price of eggs. Petrol is a far more serious matter. Iranians treat its low cost as a birthright. It is cheaper than mineral water. Many Iranians cut rental costs by relocating from city centres to distant satellite towns, or drive from the provinces to the capital, Tehran, to work as taxi drivers. Others smuggle petrol abroad. It is still among the cheapest in the world.

The Iranian authorities were already struggling to deal with protests in Lebanon and Iraq, where its allies hold power. Now they must deal with their own bit of upheaval. The fuel hikes brought car-owning, middle-class Iranians onto the streets for the first time since 2009, when the authorities crushed protests over a fishy election. Faced with a restive and resentful population, the government is still relying on force to restore order.

Correction (November 18th 2019): On petrol purchases over 60 litres the price increase was 300%, not 200% as we originally wrote.