Bougainville has voted for independence, but may not get it

THE INTENDED destination is not in doubt. Fully 97.7% of voters on the Pacific island of Bougainville opted for independence from Papua New Guinea (PNG) in a referendum held in late November and early December. But how—and how fast—the island will get there remains far from clear. The outcome of the poll is not binding on the government, which inherited Bougainville, part of the archipelago that includes the Solomon Islands, as a quirk of colonial map-making. There will now be a lengthy consultation between the island’s autonomous administration and the national authorities. The ultimate say rests with PNG’s parliament.

There are many reasons for delay. Bertie Ahern, a former Irish prime minister who oversaw the referendum, says the island’s 300,000-odd people are not ready for independence. James Marape, PNG’s prime minister, argues that Bougainville’s economy is too weak and has promised greater spending on infrastructure. The region’s main powers, Australia and New Zealand, fear the creation of a mendicant state on their doorsteps, susceptible, in particular, to Chinese bribes and blandishments. Nearly all of Bougainville’s revenue comes either from the central government or foreign aid.