Middle East & Africa | The southern problem

Ethnic separatists are challenging Ethiopia’s unity

Can Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister, stop the country from falling apart?

|HAWASSA

JULY 18TH was supposed to be a day of celebration for the Sidama. Ethiopia’s fifth-biggest ethnic group was to vote on statehood in a referendum. Some members anticipated the moment by hoisting Sidama flags over local-government buildings in the territory that would make up their semi-autonomous state. In Hawassa they began erecting billboards welcoming visitors to their new capital. “Our officials told us, you can celebrate,” says Gosaye, a Sidama activist.

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In the end there were no festivities. Rather than hold the promised referendum, the central government said it would take place within five months. Sidama officials agreed to the delay and told their supporters to be patient. But protesters burned vehicles, looted businesses and attacked government buildings. Angry mobs set upon members of other ethnic groups. The army was deployed and the internet switched off. At least 25 people were killed in clashes, most by the security forces (activists claim the true figure is higher). More than 150 people were arrested.

The roots of the crisis lie in Ethiopia’s constitution, which created nine ethnically based, semi-autonomous states, but gave each of Ethiopia’s more than 80 ethnic groups the right to form its own state or secede. For decades the ruling Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front prevented any group from actually exercising that right. But Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister, came to power last year promising greater freedoms. Under the new dispensation ethnic elites have revived their demands for more autonomy.

First came the Sidama, who number around 5m and are the biggest group in the state called the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR). They have longed chafed at their inclusion in the SNNPR, a messy hotch-potch of more than 45 different ethnic groups. Others are also unhappy with the set-up. Groups that live far from Hawassa, the state capital, have less say than those, such as the Sidama, that dominate the centre. The state government is weak and fractious; parliament failed to pass a budget this year. Since the Sidama requested a referendum last July at least ten other groups have demanded their own states.

Balkanisation along ethnic lines is dangerous. Last year intercommunal fighting forced almost 3m people from their homes. Much of the violence occurred in the country’s densely populated south. A proliferation of new states equipped with their own security forces may be a recipe for further bloodshed if, as seems likely, there are territorial disputes. Minority groups fear being persecuted. States, which can write their own constitutions, have often failed to protect them. Some Sidama leaders say their constitution will be more inclusive than most and they promise quotas for minorities in government. But other leaders are less keen on such measures.

Abiy has done little to calm nerves. For months his government dithered instead of organising the referendum for the Sidama. Then he threatened to use force if the group declared independence unilaterally. Activists say they do not trust the government to keep its new promise of a referendum. “It’s playing tricks,” says Gosaye. Meanwhile the Welayta, the second-largest ethnic group in the SNNPR, have taken to the streets demanding their own vote on statehood. Ethiopia’s southern problem may get worse before it gets better.

This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline "The southern problem"

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