Jeff Sessions, the attorney-general, was quick to seize on the FBI statistics to make the case for his tough law-and-order policies. We must turn back the “rising tide of violent crime”, he said in a statement on September 25th. “The Department of Justice is committed to working with our state, local, and tribal partners across the country to deter violent crime, dismantle criminal organisations and gangs, stop the scourge of drug trafficking, and send a strong message to criminals that we will not surrender our communities to lawlessness and violence."
Mr Sessions does not mention that violent crime remains at a historic low and that much progress has been made with “smart crime” methods such as community policing and the use of data analytics in fighting all types of crime. In 2016 there were fewer than half as many murders as there had been in 1991. “It is important to remember that an increase in the crime rate in some of our cities amounts to very small numbers. It is not that the increase isn’t important, but that these small numbers can move the rate dramatically because the crime rate is so low,” says John Pfaff, a criminologist at Fordham University Law School.
Yet when it comes to the substantial increase in murders and other violent crime in Chicago, Mr Pfaff and other experts admit that they do not have a good explanation. Concentrated poverty, gangs and guns all play a big role, but they existed before the sudden spike in violence in Chicago started in 2015. The lack of funds for violence-interruption programmes is likely to have made a difference. Since March 2015 the funding of CeaseFire, which employs former felons and others with insight into local crime as community messengers to prevent violence, has been cut to almost nothing. And thanks to widely publicised incidents of execrable police brutality the relationship between the Chicago Police Department and the black community, which has been conflictual even in better days, soured further in the last few years.
“Crime statistics have been used as a political football since they were tracked, and this year is no different,” says Adam Gelb at The Pew Charitable Trusts, a non-profit organisation. President Donald Trump promised to stop this “American carnage” and talked about sending in the feds to crack down on crime in Chicago. He also told a group of sheriffs in February (incorrectly) that the murder rate is the highest it has been in 47 years. There is little doubt that the FBI statistics will further fuel the "crime wave" rhetoric of the president and his attorney-general.