A Democrat leads in New Jersey’s seventh district

By M.S.R. | WASHINGTON, DC

LEONARD LANCE, the Republican representative of New Jersey’s seventh, has lived in the district since he was born. Tom Malinowski, his Democratic challenger, returned to the area last year after more than three decades away. In a televised debate this week the Republican called the Democrat a “complete and total carpetbagger”. But Mr Malinowski had a better line yet. Mr Lance, he said, had been a failed check on President Donald Trump. “I don’t see a lot of fight in you”, he said.

If Democrats are to take back the House of Representatives in November they will do so by flipping white-collar suburban districts like New Jersey’s seventh. The largely-white, prosperous district, in the outer ring of New York City’s suburbs, has been held by a Republican for four decades. It has more registered Republicans than Democrats. But it has even more unaffiliated voters. During the decade in which Mr Lance has held on to the district, it has swung between parties in presidential elections, going to Barack Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. In 2016, when Hillary Clinton narrowly won it, Mr Lance was re-elected by a margin of 11 points. But he now looks likely to be usurped by Mr Malinowski, a former assistant secretary of state under Mr Obama.

In a district in which Mr Trump has a low approval rating, the president is Mr Malinowski’s most powerful weapon. Mr Malinowski, who has spent his working life in Washington, DC, has also raised much more cash than Mr Lance. A recent poll showed him eight points ahead.

Mr Lance, a moderate Republican and a member of the Congressional Problem Solvers caucus, a bipartisan group, would ordinarily be a tough opponent for Mr Malinowski. Mr Lance has spoken out against the Trump administration’s trade tariffs. Although the National Rifle Association has given him positive ratings for years, he supports expanding background checks and has co-sponsored six gun control measures. In August Gabrielle Gifford, a former Democratic congresswoman who was shot in 2011 and went on to become a leading gun control campaigner, endorsed Mr Lance for a sixth term. On her website she describes him as a “problem-solving representative.”

Mr Lance also voted against the Republican tax bill, a wise move given that it imposes a $10,000 cap on the deduction for state and local taxes—an important form of tax relief in the state with the highest property-taxes in America. Mr Malinowski also opposes the cap. Following protests from his constituents, Mr Lance also voted against the effort in 2017 to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.

During the debate, Mr Malinowski pointed out that Mr Lance voted against Obamacare when it was passed in 2009 and has since voted many times to dismantle parts of it, including by defunding Planned Parenthood. He has also attacked Mr Lance over comments he made about Brett Kavanaugh, whose confirmation to the Supreme Court was imperilled by allegations of sexual assault. Mr Malinowski’s campaign seized on Mr Lance’s remark that “I tend not to believe the charges” (made before the judge and his accuser testified to the Senate Judiciary Committee) and used it in a campaign ad. Mr Lance said his comment had been taken out of context.

Both these criticisms play well with women voters in New Jersey’s seventh, most of whom will probably vote Democratic. A recent poll suggests college-educated women in key battleground races favour Democrats over Republicans by a 27-point margin.

Margaret Illis, a former registered Republican who has voted for Mr Lance several times, is one of them. Shortly after Mr Trump’s election she cofounded NJ7 Forward, a grassroots group, to lobby Mr Lance to stand up against the president’s more hard-line policies. “He calls himself a moderate but has voted with the president more than 80% of the time,” she says. NJ7 Forward is endorsing Mr Malinowski.