Middle East and Africa | On the boil

Iraq’s government seems powerless to halt protests in its heartland

More than 100 people have been killed, as economic and political frustrations erupt

THE UN CALLS the violence “senseless”. Human-rights groups condemn it as wanton. More than 100 Iraqis have been killed and 4,000 wounded since protests flared on October 1st in Baghdad and across southern Iraq. To restore order the government has tried shutting down the internet, imposing curfews and firing on demonstrators. Lately it has promised new jobs. Officials admit that they are running out of options. “There’s no magic solution,” says Adel Abdul-Mahdi, the 77-year-old prime minister.

Iraq’s wobbly democracy relies on the support of the Shia majority. The protests, though, have erupted in Shia areas and attracted the support of mostly young Iraqis, many of whom are unemployed. They are fed up with the government’s perceived incompetence and corruption. Despite increased oil revenues and relative peace after years of civil war, jobs are scarce and services are poor. Western diplomats question whether Mr Abdul-Mahdi, in office one year, can regain control.

There have been big protests before. In 2016 thousands of Iraqis stormed the then-fortified Green Zone, the seat of government in Baghdad, and demanded political reforms. The current protests are more spread out. There have been rallies in provincial capitals across the south and smaller, more violent protests in the suburbs. They are too numerous for the security forces to control. In Baghdad young men have cut off the airport road and set fire to the offices of the ruling Shia parties. The Green Zone, which was opened to the public in June, has been resealed.

The timing of the protests seems to have caught the government off-guard. Normally they take place in the summer, when water and electricity are scarce. But the rains this year have been good and electricity production is at a post-war high. The government’s coffers are fairly flush thanks to record oil production. Still, it has been unable to deal with high poverty rates, and with youth unemployment that stands around 25%. The anger intensified after the security forces beat up new graduates seeking public-sector jobs last month. Scenes of them destroying homes built without planning permission further inflamed public sentiment.

Economic and political frustrations are at the heart of the protests. But anger has also been directed at Iran, which is seen as having undue influence over the government. The dismissal of Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi, a popular army commander, brought many of his southern tribesmen onto the streets. They believe he was ousted for trying to root out corruption in the army, particularly among Shia militia groups with close ties to Iran. Al-Saadi's face has been seen on placards waved by protesters. “Out, out Iran. Set our country free,” they say.

In 2016 the security forces looked on helplessly. This time, though, the response was fierce and fast. On the first day of unrest the interior ministry ordered armoured cars onto the streets. By the second day a curfew was declared. But the chain of command appears to be fraying. The most militant and pro-Iranian Shia militias have taken a lead role in confronting the protesters, say observers. Masked men have smashed the offices of anti-Iranian satellite-TV stations that aired protest footage. Hundreds of activists have been arrested. Others have been killed in their homes.

The government is also in disarray. Mr Abdul-Mahdi has unveiled a raft of measures aimed at calming the protesters, such as land distributions and increased welfare payments. But the speaker of parliament, Mahmoud al-Halbousi, has broadcast his own list of measures, including financial support for over a million low-income families. Meanwhile, Muqtada al-Sadr, the firebrand Shia cleric whose party is the biggest in parliament, and leaders of other factions in the government have called for early elections, casting Mr Abdul-Mahdi adrift.

Mr Sadr has long championed the cause of the dispossessed. But, since his party joined the government, many protesters now see him as part of the problem. They have also ignored appeals for calm from the chief Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who also warned the government that it must heed the demands of the protesters or things will get worse. Iraq’s young democracy, no stranger to tumult, may be facing its most dangerous moment yet.

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