The Biden administration will try to box clever on China

By David Rennie: Beijing bureau chief, The Economist

FOR FOUR years, Chinese officials have grumbled that President Donald Trump is an unpredictable bully, sometimes guided by his own selfish interests but at other moments by advisers who hate the Communist Party. A leaked diplomatic note quoted China’s Communist Party chief, Xi Jinping, complaining to European visitors that relations with America resemble a “no-rules boxing match”. The team around President-elect Joe Biden wants the contest to become at once more orderly, less overtly ideological and more challenging for China. As if planning the comeback of a heavyweight champion, incoming Democrats want to see a fitter, smarter America pick fights with China more carefully, then train hard to win each one.

A wary China will try to ease tensions but has no illusions about a full reset of relations. There will be no return to the days before 2016, when American presidents of both parties argued that engagement might lead China to open its economy—and perhaps its society—to the world. Instead, Mr Biden will level a different criticism at Mr Trump: that in swinging too wildly at the assertive China of the Xi era, he failed to land decisive blows.

Disappointment awaits business bosses who hope to see Mr Biden rush to cancel, wholesale, the tariffs that Mr Trump imposed on two-thirds of imports from China. Nor will Mr Biden instantly unwind all the export controls and investment curbs that the Trump administration slapped on Chinese technology firms. Mr Biden must deal with Chinese leaders sure that America is bent on keeping China down, making a great-power contest inevitable. To maintain leverage he has an interest in dismantling Mr Trump’s trade barriers only cautiously.

Mr Biden will at times sound positively Trumpian when he talks about the need for reciprocity in dealings with China, and about bringing manufacturing jobs back to America, with industrial policies and “Buy America” rules to support domestic firms if necessary. Though he often supported free-trade agreements during four decades in the Senate, he leads a Democratic Party more sceptical than ever of globalisation. As vice-president, Mr Biden was a cheerleader for free-trade alliances designed to counter China’s mercantilist ways, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. As president, Mr Biden will not rush into any such pacts.

China will find some changes reassuring. The Biden White House will be staffed by mainstream economists who believe that trade tariffs are mostly self-defeating, and who see grave risks in using the dollar-denominated financial system as a tool to hold China down—a gambit that appealed to some senior Trump aides. The door of the Biden Oval Office will be more open to tech bosses from Silicon Valley. They will plead with the government to be much more selective about declaring that certain high-tech products and supply chains are a threat to national security, and must not involve China.

Still, some things about a tech-savvy Biden administration will make life harder for China. The president will call for America to retain primacy over China in foundational technologies of the future, from artificial intelligence to quantum computing, with the help of massive investments in basic science. He will be less alarmed by apps such as TikTok, a Chinese-created digital platform on which teenagers film their dance moves. He will be more likely than Mr Trump to welcome Chinese students to American universities, saying that he trusts the fbi to spot the small number sent to steal secrets. A more open America is a mixed blessing for Chinese officials trying to get talented researchers to come home.

In private, Chinese officials openly admit that they liked Mr Trump’s lack of interest in human rights or liberal democratic values. They know that will change. Notably, Biden advisers have said that their boss sees a worrying divide opening between techno-democracies, which use digital tools to expand freedoms, and a techno-authoritarian bloc led by China. Even if Mr Biden were minded to be cautious, Congress will demand sanctions over China’s crushing of civil liberties in Hong Kong, and over the forced “re-education” of Muslim Uyghurs in the far-western region of Xinjiang.

Mr Biden will tread carefully regarding the democratic island of Taiwan. He will preserve a decades-old balancing act in which America uses its armed forces to deter China from trying to invade the island, while reassuring Chinese leaders that America will not encourage a formal declaration of independence by Taiwan.

In a big change, Mr Biden will seek China’s help with global problems that Mr Trump mocked, such as climate change, or preferred to tackle alone, such as developing covid-19 treatments. Mr Biden may ask China to join him in reviving the nuclear pact that Barack Obama signed with Iran and leading world powers, before Mr Trump disowned it. Olive-branches to China will be denounced by Republicans, particularly those with eyes on 2024.

Finally, America will be back in the business of co­alition-building, or at least picking fewer fights with its allies. Mr Biden wants friends in his corner as he squares off against China. Rules or no, a tough contest looms.■

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition of The World in 2021 under the headline “Still a contender”