Joe Biden should drive a hard bargain with Iran

FOR THE past four years Iran’s enemies in the Middle East have had a friend in the White House. President Donald Trump blamed Iran for the region’s problems, sold arms to Israel and Arab states, and pulled America out of the deal that saw Iran limit its nuclear programme and agree to inspections in return for the lifting of international sanctions. In November Mr Trump retweeted news of the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the architect of Iran’s past nuclear-weapons programme.

The killing appears to have been the work of Israel, which has a history of bumping off Iranian nuclear scientists. With the clock ticking on the Trump administration, it may have been an attempt to scorch the earth before Joe Biden takes over. When it comes to Iran, Mr Biden prefers statecraft to sanctions and talks to targeted killings. He promises to return to the nuclear deal if Iran, which began breaching parts of it last year, moves back into compliance (see article).

More diplomacy would certainly be welcome. Mr Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure” has hurt Iran by cutting it off from the world economy—but the administration never seriously pursued a new deal. Iran is now closer to a bomb than it was at the start of Mr Trump’s term. Although covert operations may set Iran’s nuclear programme back, negotiations hold out the promise of a more lasting solution. Before Mr Biden jumps back into the nuclear deal, however, he should consider how things have changed since it was signed in 2015.

Start in the Gulf. The region has long lived under an American security umbrella. Yet when Iran carried out a series of attacks, including missile strikes, Mr Trump barely stirred. That not only raised doubts about American deterrence; it also highlighted a flaw in the nuclear deal, which says little about Iran’s missile programme and regional aggression. Such concerns have brought Israel and the Gulf states together. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have normalised relations with Israel, which is also working with Saudi Arabia. As the mullahs step up their nuclear activity, this anti-Iran axis is growing bolder. Israel may be behind several covert attacks inside Iran this year.

Things are also different in Iran. Five years ago Barack Obama’s team dealt with a pragmatic administration there. But the pragmatists have been discredited by the failure of the nuclear deal to bring economic benefits. Hardliners won parliamentary elections this year and one may win the presidential election in June. Iran’s response to the killing of Mr Fakhrizadeh highlights the tug-of-war between the camps. Parliament approved plans to stray further from the nuclear deal and kick out international inspectors. Hassan Rouhani, the relatively moderate president, opposes the bill.

All this complicates Mr Biden’s effort to turn back the clock. But America’s position has changed, too. The new administration may not like how Mr Trump and his team have handled Iran, but they have bequeathed it an extensive sanctions regime. Iran’s GDP fell by 5.4% in 2018 and 6.5% in 2019, and it is expected to fall again this year. The value of the Iranian rial has collapsed. The annual rate of inflation is around 30%. Although the ruling elite have found ways around sanctions, ordinary people are hurting. Their protests are put down by ruthless security men, but Iran’s clerical rulers are nervous.

Were Mr Biden to jump back into the nuclear deal quickly, it would mean lifting the sharpest sanctions and giving up much of this leverage. That would be a mistake. The president-elect says he wants to re-establish trust with America’s allies, but he will do that by negotiating competently, not by rolling over. Although he is unlikely to satisfy Israel, Saudi Arabia or Republicans, he should use his leverage to wring more out of Iran.

Mr Biden’s priority should be to extend the original accord, which expires over the next decade. Iran’s leaders appear open to the suggestion. They are less keen to discuss missiles, Iran’s principal means of deterrence. But Mr Biden should demand that they forswear long-range rocket launches and the transfer of missiles to regional proxies. In return he could gradually ease Iran’s economic pain and throw in sweeteners, such as access to dollars and more civilian nuclear co-operation.

There are steps Mr Biden can take in the meantime to lower tensions with Iran, such as lifting Mr Trump’s more symbolic sanctions. But he should drive a hard bargain with the mullahs. He is in a position to negotiate a broader, longer-lasting deal with Iran. He should take advantage of it. ■