Spending on infrastructure has roughly doubled since the president took office. The plan is for it to reach 7% of GDP by 2022, up from 2.6% in 2015 (see chart). The austere policies of past presidents have left Mr Duterte scope to borrow. Public debt is around 41% of GDP. He has introduced a series of sensible tax reforms, which are expected to help boost government revenue, and diversified the Philippines’ sources of funding. Japan has provided some $12bn in recent years. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is so enthusiastic about Mr Duterte’s infrastructure plans that last year it lent the Philippines more than any other country bar India. China has also promised $9bn for infrastructure, although it has signed formal agreements to provide only $900m.
Public-private partnerships are also being used. More than a quarter of big projects under “Build, Build, Build” will involve private investors. Ensuring that the terms of concessionary agreements are fair, however, has been an obsession of Mr Duterte’s administration. The president’s ongoing spat with two water companies in Manila over their contractual rights is a case in point. Shares in one of the firms, Manila Water, dropped to a 14-year low at the height of the furore last month. That may worry companies that are thinking about joining the infrastructure push.
The government says that by the middle of 2022 roughly half of the 100 “Build, Build, Build” projects should have been completed. Kelly Bird of the ADB says even finishing 30 would make the programme “hugely successful”. Filipinos are well aware of Mr Duterte’s efforts. A survey by Pulse Asia, a pollster, in December found that 69% of respondents thought his government was doing a “better” job of developing infrastructure than its predecessor.
Obstacles will mount as Mr Duterte nears the end of his time in office, however, and his political power begins to ebb. And once he steps down there is no certainty that his successor will complete his plans. New presidents in the Philippines often kill projects initiated by their predecessors. In 2011 Benigno Aquino, the president of the day, cancelled 66 of 72 car-ferry ports planned by the previous president, Gloria Arroyo, alleging corruption. With luck, though, Mr Duterte’s successor will see the benefit in inheriting dozens of partially constructed projects and a host of shovel-ready ones. A bulging pipeline of sensible projects could prove as important a legacy as the infrastructure Mr Duterte actually manages to build. ■