Three Cs explain the trend: conflict, climate and covid-19. Data from Uppsala University in Sweden find that between 2011 and 2020 the number of armed conflicts rose by around 50%. Civil wars in Myanmar, South Sudan, Syria and Yemen have left people starving. In northern Ethiopia violent encounters between government forces, militias and civilians mean more than 400,000 are without food—the worst famine since Somalia’s in 2011. Russia’s bloody campaign in Ukraine will affect the food security not only of those in besieged and ruined towns, but also in countries that depend on Russia’s and Ukraine’s agricultural exports, particularly in the Middle East and Africa.
Natural disasters, reduced rainfall and other weather events disrupt agriculture. In Madagascar a multi-year drought has pushed 1.3m people to the brink of famine. In 2020 floods and storms accounted for nearly 75% of new internal displacements, which lead to hunger. Climate-driven famines pose different challenges to those triggered by conflicts, which are more likely to be localised and eventually to peter out.
Covid has sapped families’ livelihoods and savings, while inflating the cost of meals. It has also disrupted food supply chains and countries’ willingness to provide aid. The food-price index—based on the prices of commodities such as meat, dairy, cereals and other goods—is at its highest in a decade.
