Is the world returning to pre-pandemic life? Find out with our interactive tracker

The global normalcy index

Covid-19 data - The global normalcy index | Graphic detail | The Economist

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Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020 many have wondered when the world will return to “normal”. But whether things will ever go back to the way they were is unclear: remote working looks set to continue, for example, and going to the movies may never be as popular as it used to be. The emergence of the Omicron variant in late November, has rendered two shots of vaccine less effective against covid-19, threatens to undo much of the progress the world has made in inoculating its citizens. 

Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020 many have wondered when the world will return to “normal”. But whether things will ever go back to the way they were is unclear: remote working looks set to continue, for example, and going to the movies may never be as popular as it used to be. The emergence of the Omicron variant in late November, has rendered two shots of vaccine less effective against covid-19, threatens to undo much of the progress the world has made in inoculating its citizens.

The Economist has devised a “normalcy index” to track how behaviour has changed, and continues to change, because of the pandemic. Our index comprises eight indicators, split into three domains. The first grouping is transport and travel: public transport in big cities; the amount of traffic congestion in those same cities; and the number of international and domestic flights. The second looks at recreation and entertainment: how much time is spent outside the home; cinema box-office revenues (a proxy measure for cinema attendance); and attendance at professional sports events. The third is retailing and work: footfall in shops; and occupancy of offices (measured by workplace footfall in big cities). 

The Economist has devised a “normalcy index” to track how behaviour has changed, and continues to change, because of the pandemic. Our index comprises eight indicators, split into three domains. The first grouping is transport and travel: public transport in big cities; the amount of traffic congestion in those same cities; and the number of international and domestic flights. The second looks at recreation and entertainment: how much time is spent outside the home; cinema box-office revenues (a proxy measure for cinema attendance); and attendance at professional sports events. The third is retailing and work: footfall in shops; and occupancy of offices (measured by workplace footfall in big cities).

Our index covers 50 of the world’s largest economies which together account for 90% of global GDP and 75% of the world’s population. Our aggregate measure is the population-weighted average of each country’s score. The pre-pandemic level of activity is set at 100 for ease of comparison. The tracker is updated with new data once a week. 

The global normalcy index plummeted in March 2020 as many countries imposed draconian restrictions on their citizens. It fell to just 35 in April 2020, before improving gradually over the following months. Today it stands at 78, suggesting that the world has travelled more than two-thirds of the way back to pre-pandemic life. Some indicators, such as retail footfall and time spent outside, have recovered faster than others, particularly cinema attendance and flights. The global average masks a lot of variation across countries. Click on the drop-down box to explore how behaviour has changed in each one.

Activity is back at normal levels in four of the countries we track: Colombia, Egypt, India and Nigeria. The reading for China briefly returned to pre-pandemic levels during its celebrations for the lunar new year in February 2021—owing in part to record-breaking box-office receipts. Today the country sits at the bottom of our table after lockdowns have been imposed in several cities, most notably Shanghai, in response to a wave of Omicron infections.

The two tables below show the change in the index over the past two weeks. Thirty-five of the 50 countries we are tracking are moving further away from normalcy as they have been hit by a wave of Omicron infections in recent weeks. Their score has fallen by an average of four points. 

Public transport has recovered strongly since the onset of the pandemic. Levels of traffic congestion have rebounded, too. Yet many planes remain grounded across the world as testing and quarantine rules impede international travel. 

When lockdowns were at their most stringent, in April 2020, time spent outside the home fell by 20% according to our global average. In contrast, the closure of cinemas and sports stadiums caused activity in those venues to fall to zero. They have been on a slow path to recovery since. Cinemas received a big boost from the release of the long-awaited James Bond film in October 2021, but receipts have been volatile since.

Zoom meetings and Amazon deliveries have been two prominent features of the covid-19 pandemic. Most white-collar workers are betting on continued flexibility in how much time they spend in the workplace; office occupancy rates may never return to previous levels. But don’t write off bricks and mortar: retail footfall has been remarkably strong since the middle of last year and is now above pre-pandemic levels.

Download the normalcy index data from our GitHub repository.

Download the normalcy index data from our <a href="https://github.com/TheEconomist/normalcy-index-data">GitHub repository</a>.

Sources: afltables.com; baseball-freak.com; baseball-reference.com; Box Office Mojo; Google; hockey-reference.com; TomTom; pro-football-reference.com; UN ICAO; Transfermarkt; ultimatealeague.com; Wind; The Economist

Sources: afltables.com; baseball-freak.com; baseball-reference.com; Box Office Mojo; Google; hockey-reference.com; TomTom; pro-football-reference.com; UN ICAO; Transfermarkt; ultimatealeague.com; Wind; The Economist

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The global normalcy index

Is the world returning to pre-pandemic life? Find out with our interactive tracker

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