Will Donald Trump run again?

They are the questions hanging over America and, thus, the West. Will the man who tried to overturn the results of the presidential election in 2020, threatened to disband the world’s most powerful military alliance and played footsie with Vladimir Putin, decide that he wants to run again? If so, can he be stopped? It may seem premature to ask. But the first primary of 2024 is closer in time than the last general election, 94 weeks ago. And, despite his poor record in office and his unconscionable behaviour after America’s voters kicked him out, Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican Party has strengthened.

The thumping defeat of Liz Cheney in her Wyoming primary this week matters, because it robs Congress of a brave, principled conservative, and because it fits a pattern. Not all the candidates endorsed by Mr Trump have won their primaries. But most of them have done so. Perhaps a greater sign of his influence is that many of the losing candidates sought his endorsement, too. These contests have not been over different flavours of conservatism, but over which contender is the most maga. Of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach the president for what he did on January 6th 2021, eight are either retiring or have been retired by primary voters. At the same time, the party’s nominees for key positions in some states’ administration of elections are people who support Mr Trump’s dangerous claim that the vote in 2020 was stolen.

Early polling on whom Republican voters want as their champion in 2024 suggests that about 50% of them say Mr Trump. In a system where a candidate can knock out most rivals with a solid 30% of support in the early states, it is a formidable starting position. A few months ago Republican voters, tiring of Mr Trump, looked as if they might switch to Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, or anyone else offering maga without the drama. Today Mr DeSantis would be more likely to conclude that his best shot at the White House is as Mr Trump’s running-mate.

A lot could change between now and the first Republican primary, but unless Mr Trump either decides he does not want to run, or something prevents him from doing so, it looks as if he would win the Republican nomination. That leads to the second question: could he be stopped?

One obstacle is the law. The most recent of the many investigations Mr Trump faces was revealed when the fbi came knocking at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month. A lot remains unknown. The unsealed warrant says that the Department of Justice sought classified documents that Mr Trump took from the White House. Once his investigation is complete, the attorney-general, Merrick Garland, may decide that the documents are safe and his work is done. Whether a prosecution follows may depend on how sensitive the documents were.

Many Republicans, including Mr DeSantis, have rallied behind Mr Trump. The most vocal are calling for the impeachment of Mr Garland and demanding the defunding of the fbi—a double standard considering that they wanted Hillary Clinton to be locked up for her use of a private email server. However, Democrats should remember that the precedent cuts both ways: in 2016 the Justice Department declined to prosecute Mrs Clinton.

Three other investigations—into whether Mr Trump lied on his tax returns, whether he broke the law on January 6th, and whether he took part in a criminal conspiracy to overturn the election in Fulton County, Georgia, in November 2020—are equally uncertain. Like anyone else, Mr Trump deserves the presumption of innocence. And his opponents should be wary of repeating old mistakes: at each turn they have hoped that something, anything (the Mueller investigation, the first impeachment trial, the second impeachment trial) would take him out of the picture. And yet here he is.

In fact, these legal troubles increase the incentive for Mr Trump to run. Out of politics, he is just a private citizen facing some prosecutions. For as long as he is a potential president, he is the head of a movement that won 74m votes last time round. At that point Mr Garland and others running the investigations would face an unenviable choice: either put a presidential candidate on trial or choose not to uphold the rule of law. Being on trial and even being convicted could fuel Mr Trump’s return. A revenge tour, in which he campaigned on retribution for his persecution by the legal system, would play to Mr Trump’s worst instincts and further exhaust America’s institutions.

In another era, the influence of corporate America might have helped sideline Mr Trump. Yet the political clout of big companies is waning, as the Republican Party becomes a movement of working-class whites and an increasing number of conservative Hispanics. That movement protests against not just foreign entanglements, illegal immigration and cuts to Medicare and Social Security, but also trade and left-wing identity politics advanced by the global, managerial elite. Many Republicans think the party has for too long put the interests of the s&p 500 ahead of American workers. Little wonder that big companies now regard the prospect of a Republican triumph in November with trepidation. What remains of the Republican establishment acts like a government in exile, muttering about Mr Trump’s takeover, but lacking the means to reverse it.

More crosses than ticks

If neither his party nor the law will stop Mr Trump, what can? Poetic justice recommends a do-or-die run for the Oval Office by Ms Cheney, in a bid to siphon off Republican voters who cannot bear to put a cross next to the name of a Democrat. If enough of them switched in red states in a close race, it could deny Mr Trump victory in the electoral college.

Better would be to depend on the good sense of the American people. It is easy to forget that Mr Trump loses elections. In the four years of his presidency he lost his party both houses of Congress as well as the White House. Many voters understand that he is dangerous and undemocratic and most do not want him back in office. The reason Mr Trump campaigns so hard against the trustworthiness of the ballot box is that he knows the ballot box can defeat him. ■

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