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Donald Trump’s endorsements are reshaping the Republican Party

His picks are more extreme than other candidates. They may also be a liability

America’s mid-term elections will be decided in part by Donald Trump. It is unusual for a former president to play such a large role in future elections. Mr Trump has endorsed candidates who are loyal to him and shunned the rest. Of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach him for inciting the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th 2021, four failed to win renomination. The latest was Liz Cheney, of Wyoming, vice-chair of the committee investigating the former president’s role in the attack. Four others chose to retire, leaving just two who may return to Congress next January. Across the country, Mr Trump’s picks have won four in every five races for open seats (see chart). But does that make them more likely to win against their Democratic opponents in November?

Although a maga blessing has been a boon in the primaries, it may not spell success in general elections. According to The Economist’s aggregation of pre-election polls in eight crucial Senate contests, every one of the Republican nominees—all endorsed by Mr Trump—is trailing his or her Democratic opponent. That does not bode well for Republicans’ chances to retake control of the upper chamber, currently evenly split between the parties. The starkest evidence of the former president’s drag on those prospects comes from Pennsylvania. Standing for the Republicans, Mehmet Oz, a retired doctor and television-show host, trails behind Jon Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant-governor and Democratic candidate, by 12 percentage points, according to our poll of polls. The contest should be much closer. In 2020 Joe Biden beat Mr Trump in Pennsylvania by just over a percentage point.

It is a similar story in Arizona. Blake Masters, a venture capitalist, trails Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and the incumbent Democrat, by ten points. Mr Masters has said that he would have objected to the certification of the presidential election had he been a senator on the day of the Capitol insurrection. Mr Trump endorsed him in June.

These may be examples of particularly polarising candidates. Dr Oz has floundered under repeated attacks for living in New Jersey instead of Pennsylvania; Mr Masters is feted by the far-right. Yet Republicans are also trailing in races where they ought to have handsome leads. In Georgia Herschel Walker, a former American football star endorsed by Mr Trump, lags behind the incumbent Democrat, Raphael Warnock, by three points. In Ohio J.D. Vance, a conservative commentator and author, trails behind his Democratic competitor, Tim Ryan, by two points. Mr Trump won Ohio by eight points in the presidential election in 2020, and lost Georgia by only a whisker.

Of course, the race can change quickly, and many days remain until the general election in November. Moreover, polls can be skewed; predictive errors of the magnitude made by pollsters in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections would be enough to tip the scales in favour of the Republican Party (see chart). But so far it is clear that Republicans are falling short of expectations, and in some races, by a lot. Mr Trump’s endorsees are no exception.

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