Prabowo Subianto will be the next president of Indonesia

An immensely rich, 72-year-old former special-forces commander, who was once married to a daughter of Suharto, Indonesia’s late dictator, Prabowo Subianto promises to safeguard Jokowi’s development legacy. (The president twice defeated him before bringing him into his cabinet as defence minister.) Mr Prabowo has embraced not just “Jokowinomics”—i.e., infrastructure-led development—but also Jokowi’s 36-year-old-son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his running mate. (Indonesia’s constitutional court, whose chief justice is Jokowi’s brother-in-law, made an exception to a rule that prevents candidates under 40 from running.) Mr Prabowo, who has an explosive temper, is being rebranded as a cuddly, cat-loving grandpa—albeit one with a strongly nationalist message. Many voters are too young to remember the blood on Mr Prabowo’s hands—his forces committed abuses during Indonesia’s brutal war in Timor-Leste, and in the twilight of Suharto’s rule he kidnapped more than 20 democracy protesters, 13 of whom remain unaccounted for. Though vague on foreign policy, Mr Prabowo promises to put more emphasis on security and defence.

Anies Baswedan, who is 54, is a former university rector, education minister and governor of Jakarta, the teeming capital. From a family of Muslim political activists, he studied in America where he developed progressive views. In Jakarta he strengthened flood defences, provided the poorest children with school meals and quickly responded to covid-19. Campaigning for governor, however, he embraced an ugly identity politics against the ethnic-Chinese and Christian incumbent. Many early supporters of Mr Anies have come to doubt his inclusive message. Although he polls well in Jakarta, Mr Anies depends on other, supportive parties to get out the vote for him in populous East Java and beyond. He has picked Muhaimin Iskandar, head of the largest Islamic party, as his running mate and he has the support of several conservative Muslim groups. But he also needs the support of urban moderates, whom he courts by portraying himself as a competent technocrat. Well versed in foreign affairs, he wants to boost Indonesia’s influence in its region and beyond.

Ganjar Pranowo is the modernising, 55-year-old two-time governor of populous Central Java province, with a man-of-the-people approach. He comes from no powerful dynasty, and so relies on the backing of the PDI-P and its boss, Megawati Sukarnoputri, daughter of Indonesia’s founding father and herself a former president. An amiable technocrat, Mr Ganjar is pinning his hopes of success on an active grassroots campaign. He launched his bid in Papua in Indonesia’s far east and has borrowed from Jokowi the blusukan campaign approach of impromptu visits, popping up in markets and elsewhere. He has chosen Jokowi’s co-ordinating security minister, Mahfud MD, as his vice-presidential candidate. Mr Ganjar emphasises a “free and active” foreign policy and promises to boost security in the archipelagic nation’s vast maritime domain.