Could Erdogan be ousted in Turkey’s coming election?

He was jailed and barred from public office, yet managed to overturn the ban and came to dominate Turkish politics. He has won five parliamentary elections, two presidential polls and three referendums. He has even faced down a military coup. But on May 14th Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s grip on Europe’s second most populous country may slip. The polls suggest that the united opposition could wrest control of parliament from Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AK) party and its allies. What is more, Mr Erdogan himself appears to be trailing in the presidential election to be held on the same day.

A loss for Mr Erdogan would not just be the end of an era. It would initiate enormous upheaval in Turkey, with loud reverberations in the region and around the world. Turkey is, after all, the world’s 11th-biggest economy, after adjusting for the cost of living, ahead of Canada, Italy and South Korea. It is a pivotal and awkward member of NATO, both close to the front lines of the war in Ukraine and yet, under Mr Erdogan, disconcertingly chummy with the regime of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president. It stands between Europe and the chaos of the Middle East, and plays a crucial role in moderating the flow of refugees to the EU. It is also one of the few genuine democracies in the Muslim world, although Mr Erdogan has been undermining Turkish institutions for a decade or so.