How The Economist’s predictions for 2022 stacked up

By Tom Standage: Editor, The World Ahead 2023

After failing to predict the arrival of one horseman of the apocalypse in 2020 (plague), we failed to spot the approach of another in 2022 (war). We foresaw a growing conflict between autocracy and democracy, but did not expect that conflict to manifest as a shooting war in Europe, which broke out in February when Russia invaded Ukraine.

One of war’s many consequences has been to stoke inflation by pushing up the cost of fuel and food. That put paid to the widely held view that the surge in inflation in late 2021 would prove to be transitory—a view we could, in retrospect, have been more sceptical about. The war means inflation will now be higher for much longer.

Those were our two big misses. On the other side of the ledger, many of our other predictions were nearer the mark. As expected, China’s zero-covid policy hampered growth, but Xi Jinping refused to change course. We correctly warned of the danger of a more infectious coronavirus variant, of the risk that this would pose to China in particular, and of the impact that draconian lockdowns there could have on global supply chains and consumer prices, and thus inflation.

As expected, China’s zero-covid policy hampered growth

We correctly predicted Emmanuel Macron’s win in France and Jair Bolsonaro’s loss in Brazil, that “Bongbong” Marcos would prevail in the Philippines, that the MPLA would hold on in Angola and that Democrats would hold the Senate but lose control of the House in America’s midterm elections. We also featured Giorgia Meloni as a person to watch, noting that she had “a fighting chance of becoming Italy’s first female prime minister”, as indeed she did after elections in September.

Our observation that Britain was particularly vulnerable to stagflation was spot on. So too was our suggestion that Boris Johnson had more to fear from his own backbench MPs than from the opposition Labour Party; they duly ejected him in July. But we failed to anticipate the scale of the political and economic mess that followed his departure. On a sadder note, we were right to suggest that Queen Elizabeth II’s platinum jubilee celebrations in June would be the last great spectacle of her reign.

Finally, we correctly noted that it would be worth keeping a close eye on SpaceX and its Starlink satellite constellation, which can provide high-speed internet access in isolated locations. Starlink has become vital to the Ukrainian war effort, raising concerns over the power this grants SpaceX’s mercurial boss, Elon Musk, who can turn it off at any time.

Farther away in space, nasa smashed its dart probe into a small asteroid as expected, successfully changing its orbit with a direct hit. Alas, events back on Earth lack the neat predictability of celestial mechanics.■

Tom Standage: Editor, The World Ahead 2023

This article appeared in the International section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2023 under the headline “Reality check”