Why banning food exports does not work

AMID RISING inflation and the spectre of shortages caused by the war in Ukraine, some food-exporting countries are shutting up shop. On May 23rd Malaysia banned the export of poultry. Earlier this month, India banned wheat exports. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), a think-tank, at least 20 countries have imposed some sort of limit on exports since the war began. Taken together the restricted exports account for 10% of calories on the global market. The United Nations has urged countries to reconsider. Keeping calories flowing across borders, it argues, is the best way to ensure global food security and less-volatile prices. Do export bans work?

Their appeal for governments seems obvious. Food originally destined for export can be redirected to domestic markets, pushing down local prices. When food prices surged in 2007-08 following the financial crash, the closest recent parallel to today’s crisis, several countries quickly imposed export restrictions on many crops. Some studies suggest that was effective in keeping domestic inflation in check, according to Annelies Deuss, a researcher from the OECD, a club for mostly-rich countries.