Society will not be the same after lockdowns are lifted

LAST MONTH The Economist coined the term “90% economy” to describe what will happen as lockdowns are eased across the world. Under strict lockdowns, economies tend to operate at about 60% capacity, analysis from Goldman Sachs suggests. But as they are eased, that figure rises to 90%. Many offices and factories reopen—but not all do, and people, scared of being infected, are likely to shun many social activities. Unemployment is structurally higher, and is particularly concentrated in occupations which rely on plenty of face-to-face contact. According to one estimate, if Americans chose to avoid person-to-person proximity of the length of an arm or less, occupations worth approximately 10% of national output would become unviable.

But the idea of the 90% economy captures something qualitative too. The 90% economy will undoubtedly be characterised by relief, fellow feeling, and newly felt or expressed esteem for those who have worked to keep people safe. But the term depicts a more solitary and less fun sort of society—the sort of place where the office is open but the pub isn’t. A range of real-time data backs up this thesis. Analysis by Tang Jie of Peking University finds that weekday subway trips in China have recovered faster than weekend ones (see left-hand chart), suggesting that people are more prepared to travel for work than for pleasure. Sales of instant noodles, savoured by homebodies, have rocketed, whereas beer sales are doing far less well.

As other countries ease restrictions, they can expect to emulate the Chinese experience. Some American states have started to lift lockdowns, but there is little sign of economies roaring back (see right-hand chart). That may happen only once reliable test-and-trace systems are introduced, or perhaps only when a vaccine or cure becomes widely available. The longer the 90% economy endures, the more permanent its effects will be.