China is spending less on American goods than expected

AS PART OF his "phase one trade deal" with China, signed in January, President Donald Trump secured promises that the Chinese would buy a lot of American stuff. The data so far suggest that sales are falling short. According to figures compiled by Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (with whom your correspondent hosts a podcast), over the first five months of the year Chinese imports of goods covered by the agreement were badly behind schedule. Compared with a baseline assuming the exports would be spread evenly through the year, purchases were less than half of what they should have been.

Performance varies by category. China has imported less than $1bn-worth of American energy products (chiefly oil, coal and liquefied natural gas), compared with the $25bn promised for the whole year. (Some in America are anyway sceptical about the industry’s capacity to supply such an amount.) Chinese imports of manufactured goods are less than a quarter of their way to the annual target, with five months of the year gone. Mr Trump was particularly proud of China’s promises to buy agricultural products. But so far only $8bn out of $37bn has materialised.