As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out

These days Russians do not have much to boast about, so they take what they can get. Social-media trolls are posting videos, intended for European audiences, showing gas stoves left on full blast. What might cost hundreds of euros in Berlin comes to a few roubles in Moscow. The taunting is childish, but it hints at a deeper truth: the economic war between Russia and the West is at a delicate moment. While Europe teeters on the brink of recession, Russia is emerging from one.

Western sanctions, launched in response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, have wounded Russia’s long-term prospects. Blocking the world’s ninth-largest economy from accessing foreign tech and expertise has cut its growth potential by as much as half, forecasts suggest. Output of oil and gas, the lifeblood of Russia’s economy, is about 3% lower than before the invasion and may fall further once European embargoes come into effect at the turn of the year. In the first six months of the war between 250,000 and 500,000 Russians fled the country, reckons Liam Peach of Capital Economics, a consultancy. Lots were highly educated and well paid.