EIU Nowcast: Industrial production slumps, weighing on GDP outlook

The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q2 2020 weakened further to -13.80% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, versus -10.19% during the week ending May 8th.

Nowcast graph
Nowcast graph
  • ‘Hard’ data for April saw yet another week of record slump – with the industrial production index witnessing the largest ever drop in history owing to the lockdown and suspended operations of the factories due to COVID-19 outbreak.
  • Retail Sales & Food Services also experienced a steep decline as most of the sector’s businesses are operating only with very limited capacity or are shut completely.
  • ‘Soft’ data from May, however, showed slight improvement — albeit on a very low base.
  • University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment indicator surprisingly moved slightly upward in a flash estimate for May.
  • May release from Empire State Manufacturing Survey diffusion index also saw improvement–from the lows of April–but the index remained far below 0 i.e. in contraction zone.
  • Overall, the impact of the slump in ‘hard’ data for April outweighed the minor improvements seen in ‘soft’ data from May.
  • To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.

Data releases (last week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious data
Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$)Apr (20’) 403946.00483476.00
Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100) Apr (20’)92.60104.30
Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity)Apr (20’)64.9073.20
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (NSA, Q1-66=100) May (20’) 73.2071.80
University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions (NSA, Q1-66=100) May (20’) 67.7070.10
University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations (NSA, Q1-66=100) May (20’) 41.8052.50
Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Seasonally adjusted diffusion index May (20’)-48.5-78.2
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) For 14th May (20’)3176.003867.00

Data releases (current week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease Date
New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Flash] (SAAR, Thous.Units)Apr (20’)18th May 2020
Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units)Apr (20’)19th May 2020
US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion) May (20’)21st May 2020
US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion)May (20’)21st May 2020
Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey Current Activity Diffusion IndexMay (20’)21st May 2020
Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey New OrdersMay (20’)21st May 2020
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)May (20’)21st May 2020

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