Our final pre-election forecast is that Joe Biden is likely to beat Donald Trump in Florida.
| Florida 29 electoral votes | Chance of winning the most votes | Predicted popular vote share | |
|---|---|---|---|
around 4 in 5 or 80% | 48-56% | ||
around 1 in 5 or 20% | 45-52% |
Chance of winning Florida over time
The chance of either candidate winning Florida reflects the polls, our political-economic projection and our estimate of the uncertainty of the race.
Florida polling average and projected popular vote
The model averages public opinion polls, weights them by sample size and adjusts them for persistent partisan bias. We combine the average with our political-economy forecast, giving more weight to the polls as we get closer to election day.
| Pollster | Population | Mode | Sample size | Biden | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYTM | Likely to vote | Online | 517 | 51% | 49% | D +2.3 |
Oct 30th-Nov 1st | ||||||
| Change Research | Likely to vote | Online | 806 | 52% | 48% | D +3.0 |
Oct 29th-Nov 1st | ||||||
| St Pete Polls | Likely to vote | Online | 2,758 | 51% | 49% | D +1.0 |
Oct 29th-Oct 30th | ||||||
| Quinnipiac University | Likely to vote | Live Phone | 1,657 | 53% | 47% | D +5.6 |
Oct 28th-Nov 1st | ||||||
| RMG Research | Likely to vote | Onilne | 1,200 | 52% | 48% | D +4.1 |
Oct 28th-Oct 30th | ||||||
| AtlasIntel | Likely to vote | Online | 786 | 50% | 50% | — |
Oct 28th-Oct 29th | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Registered voters | IVR | 941 | 54% | 46% | D +7.2 |
Oct 28th-Oct 29th | ||||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Likely to vote | Online | 1,587 | 52% | 48% | D +4.2 |
Oct 27th-Oct 28th | ||||||
| Ipsos | Likely to vote | Online | 670 | 52% | 48% | D +4.2 |
Oct 27th-Nov 2nd | ||||||
| NYT/Siena College | Likely to vote | Live Phone | 1,451 | 52% | 48% | D +3.3 |
Oct 27th-Oct 31st | ||||||
| Pollster | Biden | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| AYTM | 51% | 49% | D +2.3 |
Oct 30th-Nov 1st ▼ More info | |||
| Change Research | 52% | 48% | D +3.0 |
Oct 29th-Nov 1st ▼ More info | |||
| St Pete Polls | 51% | 49% | D +1.0 |
Oct 29th-Oct 30th ▼ More info | |||
| Quinnipiac University | 53% | 47% | D +5.6 |
Oct 28th-Nov 1st ▼ More info | |||
| RMG Research | 52% | 48% | D +4.1 |
Oct 28th-Oct 30th ▼ More info | |||
| AtlasIntel | 50% | 50% | — |
Oct 28th-Oct 29th ▼ More info | |||
| Public Policy Polling | 54% | 46% | D +7.2 |
Oct 28th-Oct 29th ▼ More info | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 52% | 48% | D +4.2 |
Oct 27th-Oct 28th ▼ More info | |||
| Ipsos | 52% | 48% | D +4.2 |
Oct 27th-Nov 2nd ▼ More info | |||
| NYT/Siena College | 52% | 48% | D +3.3 |
Oct 27th-Oct 31st ▼ More info | |||
How states move with Florida
Our model also simulates what would happen if the race moves, or the polls are biased, in similar amounts in like states. We calculate similarity between states by comparing their demographic and political profiles, such as the share of white voters who live there, how religious they are and how urban or rural the state is.
Sources: US Census Bureau; MIT Election and Data Science Lab; 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; American National Election Studies; 270towin.com; Gallup; FiveThirtyEight; YouGov
Forecast by The Economist with Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanns, Columbia University