The World Ahead 2023
Future-gazing analysis, predictions and speculation
Welcome to The World Ahead 2023, our guide to the coming year. Our correspondents and outside experts consider the interlocking challenges facing the world: the war in Ukraine, high food and fuel prices, the fight against inflation, the transition to renewable energy, and China’s uncertain post-pandemic path. You can also watch a 60-second summary opposite. If you are not already a subscriber to The Economist you can unlock some of our content by registering.
If you’ve stumbled on this page in search of our predictions for 2024, head to The World Ahead 2024.
Editor’s letter
The World Ahead 2023
Ten trends to watch in the coming year
A letter from Tom Standage, editor of “The World Ahead 2023”
Leaders
The World Ahead 2023
Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
The world is reeling from shocks in geopolitics, energy and economics
The World Ahead 2023
Ukraine has a fighting chance in 2023
But it is still not clear how the war will play out
The World Ahead 2023
Has China reached the peak of its powers?
Xi Jinping has set himself up for a difficult year
The World Ahead 2023
Prepare for rising tensions between fiscal and monetary policy
Central bankers will remain hawkish in 2023
The World Ahead 2023
How Putin’s war is causing global instability
Other strongmen must learn the right lessons
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A whole new global energy system is emerging
It involves some uncomfortable compromises
Britain
The World Ahead 2023
Can Rishi Sunak bring much-needed stability to Britain in 2023?
Britain’s fifth Conservative prime minister in six years settles in
The World Ahead 2023
Britain is the sick man of Europe once again
The country will struggle to pep up its sluggish investment
The World Ahead 2023
The British government will prioritise new energy streams
That means renewables and nuclear, but more oil and gas, too
The World Ahead 2023
A momentous year looms for the cause of Scottish independence
Will Scots get a second vote?
The World Ahead 2023
Many Britons expect an outbreak of civil disorder in 2023
Confidence in the police is declining
The World Ahead 2023
Britain’s NHS faces huge challenges in 2023
Bed-blocking and staffing are some of the biggest problems
Europe
The World Ahead 2023
Three scenarios for how war in Ukraine could play out
The best one for Ukraine is also the most dangerous
The World Ahead 2023
Russia risks becoming ungovernable and descending into chaos
There is growing opposition to President Putin at home
The World Ahead 2023
Fallout from the war in Ukraine will bedevil European diplomacy
An important country in the debate will be Italy
The World Ahead 2023
The scourge of inflation means a tough year ahead for Europe
Economies face problems as energy prices and interest rates rise
The World Ahead 2023
Turkey’s centenary could mark the end of the Erdogan era
The president faces elections just before the celebrations
The World Ahead 2023
A change of government in Spain is likely but not inevitable in 2023
And the People’s Party will probably not win a majority
United States
The World Ahead 2023
To understand America’s future, watch the four mega-states
California and New York on the left, Florida and Texas on the right
The World Ahead 2023
American politics will be on a knife-edge in 2023
A divided government was not always a recipe for gridlock
The World Ahead 2023
Donald Trump and Joe Biden both want to run again
But their parties may have other ideas
The World Ahead 2023
A Ukrainian victory could bring benefits for America
It would also bring complications and dangers
The World Ahead 2023
The American economy is set for a downturn, not a crisis
The coming recession looks likely to be mild
The World Ahead 2023
America’s school-choice movement is gaining steam
Plenty of people are not happy about that
The Americas
The World Ahead 2023
Lula’s second term as Brazil’s president will be difficult
The situation is more challenging than when he first took office in 2003
The World Ahead 2023
Economic hardships mean that Cubans are voting with their feet
More are leaving as the Communist Party tightens its grip
The World Ahead 2023
Parts of Latin America will shift to the right in 2023
Slow economic growth is a factor
The World Ahead 2023
Mexico’s energy policy is bad for the country—and the planet
Uncertainty and a squeeze on private companies are deterring investors
The World Ahead 2023
Is it the end of the war on drugs in Latin America?
The prohibition model espoused by the United States looks weaker than ever
The World Ahead 2023
Mia Mottley on how to fight climate change together
A change in the international financial system would help
Asia
The World Ahead 2023
The Indian economy remains a bright spot in South Asia
Other countries in the region may continue to struggle
The World Ahead 2023
The cricket World Cup in India in 2023 will be more than just a game
It has become part of India’s political economy
The World Ahead 2023
India is continuing on its path to majoritarian chauvinism
Narendra Modi will do everything to ensure a third term in office
The World Ahead 2023
More misery looms for Afghanistan
Skilled at insurgency, the Taliban are struggling to govern
The World Ahead 2023
Where might conflict flare up in 2023?
Keep an eye on Taiwan and the South China Sea—and the Himalayas
China
The World Ahead 2023
China is struggling to adjust to new realities
Is Xi Jinping bold enough to set a new course?
The World Ahead 2023
Will China’s economy ever overtake America’s in size?
Perhaps not, as the population peaks earlier than expected
The World Ahead 2023
China’s tricky foreign relations pose a challenge to Xi Jinping
Tensions with America and Europe are just the start
The World Ahead 2023
Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia?
The status quo is breaking down, making war more likely
The World Ahead 2023
China’s women are struggling to make their voices heard
New legislation is unlikely to help
The World Ahead 2023
Feng Yuan says Chinese women’s anger is a force for change
The government is worried about too much activism
Middle East
The World Ahead 2023
The Middle East’s complex web of alliances is evolving
Not least in relation to Israel
The World Ahead 2023
Several oil-importing Arab states face debt crises in 2023
They will probably have to deal with growing unrest
The World Ahead 2023
Russia’s influence in the Middle East is declining
The war in Ukraine has been bad for business
The World Ahead 2023
It is hard to see a middle way prevailing in Iran
Either a crackdown or an opening up will come
Africa
The World Ahead 2023
Demand for new sources of energy could help African economies
It could provide much-needed new revenue as hunger spreads
The World Ahead 2023
2023 will be a busy year for elections in Africa
Many incumbents will come under pressure
The World Ahead 2023
Nigeria’s economy will continue to struggle in 2023
A new leadership needs to implement widespread reform
The World Ahead 2023
Vanessa Nakate says fighting climate change can cut poverty in Africa
The continent needs more renewable energy
The World Ahead 2023
Eritrea is the most dangerous player in the Horn of Africa
The whole region is worse off than five years ago
The World Ahead 2023
Kuseni Dlamini says Africa must better harness technology
It’s time for a continental reset
International
The World Ahead 2023
India will become the world’s most populous country in 2023
China is now suffering from a demographic slump
The World Ahead 2023
Climate change is likely to increase migration
But three-quarters of such migrants stay within their own country
The World Ahead 2023
Climate diplomacy will continue to be a challenge in 2023
A third year of La Niña will cause problems, too
The World Ahead 2023
How the war in Ukraine is reshaping America’s global alliances
There are signs of Europeans and Asian countries stepping up
The World Ahead 2023
How The Economist’s predictions for 2022 stacked up
Two big misses, and some hits
The World Ahead 2023
Global hunger is now more a problem of price than availability
As always, women and children are the worst affected
Special sections
The World Ahead 2023
23 items of vital vocabulary you’ll need to know in 2023
Passkeys? Post-quantum cryptography? Vertiports? Get up to speed here
The World Ahead 2023
What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2023
The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year
KAL
Our cartoonist sketches the geopolitical birds to watch for in 2023
From Putin Horribilis to Zelenski Valourus
The World Ahead 2023
Ten business trends for 2023, and forecasts for 15 industries
A global round-up from The Economist Intelligence Unit
Business
The World Ahead 2023
Hydrogen hype is rising again—will this time be different?
Investors have been excited, and disappointed, before
The World Ahead 2023
The downturn is unlikely to decimate Europe’s tech industry again
The whole ecosystem has changed
The World Ahead 2023
Bosses are growing more desperate to get workers back to the office
Wine tasting? Or in-house nail bar, anyone?
The World Ahead 2023
The tech war between America and China is just getting started
The industry is a vital battleground in their geopolitical rivalry
The World Ahead 2023
Companies are expected to take a stand on more social issues
Investors, workers and customers are all becoming more activist
Finance and economics
The World Ahead 2023
How does the past help us predict policy on inflation in 2023?
Taking away the punch-bowl
The World Ahead 2023
Hopes for a post-pandemic productivity surge will be disappointed
There doesn’t seem to have been a boost in innovation, either
The World Ahead 2023
Market performance in 2023 may depend on the extent of past misdeeds
What might the receding tide reveal from 2022?
The World Ahead 2023
High energy prices will hurt companies and consumers in 2023
Everyone is hoping for a mild winter
The World Ahead 2023
China is rapidly rolling out its new digital currency
The rest of the world is watching its experiment closely
Science and technology
The World Ahead 2023
Psychedelic medicines are expanding into the public consciousness
Magic mushrooms are just the start
The World Ahead 2023
Next-generation vaccines could make a difference in 2023
New variants are always lurking, though
The World Ahead 2023
New spacecraft and missions to watch in 2023
From low-Earth orbit to the moons of Jupiter
The World Ahead 2023
A reality check for the metaverse is coming
Is it really the next big thing? Watch this virtual space
The World Ahead 2023
Sexual pleasure is increasingly seen as part of general well-being
Discussion of sexual well-being will become less taboo
The World Ahead 2023
Electric “air taxis” hope to get off the ground in 2023
But first they must be cleared for take-off by regulators
Culture
The World Ahead 2023
A Mumbai museum has a different way of looking at history
And a new model for global cultural co-operation
The World Ahead 2023
After the pandemic, a feast of great art shows is coming
Everything from Vermeer and Picasso to a new museum in Ghana
The World Ahead 2023
As Hollywood turns 100, movie consumption is being transformed
Users’ tastes and behaviours are changing faster than studios’ output
The World Ahead 2023
2023 offers up an enticing variety of new films
Barbie, John Wick and Guardians of the Galaxy, to name a few
The World Ahead 2023
Saudi Arabia is getting into film production
Saudiwood is betting big on Arab audiences
The World Ahead 2023
Tall buildings are transforming Quito
The capital of Ecuador is a new playground for renowned architects
Obituary
The World Ahead 2023
Supermarket cashiers move down the conveyor-belt to obsolescence
Unexpected item in bagging area
Podcasts
The World Ahead
How to forecast major events in 2023
In this future-gazing podcast series, we’re debating the key themes that will shape 2023—from geopolitics to climate change to economics
23:33
The World Ahead
Where should you look to see America’s political future?
In this future-gazing podcast series, we’re debating the key themes that will shape 2023—from geopolitics to climate change to economics
25:12
The World Ahead
India will become the world’s most populous country in 2023. So what?
In this future-gazing podcast series, we’re debating the key themes that will shape 2023—from geopolitics to climate change to economics
19:26
The World Ahead
How will China navigate its post-pandemic challenges in 2023?
In this future-gazing podcast series, we’re debating the key themes that will shape 2023—from geopolitics to climate change to economics
26:31
The World Ahead
What will be the buzzwords of 2023?
In this future-gazing podcast series, we’re debating the key themes that will shape 2023—from geopolitics to climate change to economics
23:25
The World Ahead
How will the energy crisis, triggered by the war in Ukraine, unfold in 2023?
In this future-gazing podcast series, we’re debating the key themes that will shape 2023—from geopolitics to climate change to economics
24:18