Germany’s election result 2021

Germany’s federal election on September 26th was a cliffhanger. Preliminary results indicate that the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) will be the largest party in the new Bundestag, just ahead of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU). For the SPD, that is a marked improvement on their showing last time, in 2017. For the CDU/CSU, it is a marked deterioration. The Bundestag will have seven parties (counting the CDU and CSU as one)—including a single representative of the South Schleswig Voters’ Association.

After a fragmented result, a rare three-party government looks likely. The chancellor-candidates of both the SPD, Olaf Scholz, and the CDU/CSU, Armin Laschet, have claimed the right to try to form a governing coalition. Both are likely to try to woo the Greens, who finished third, and the liberal Free Democrats, who came fourth. The two smaller parties, however, plan to talk to each other first before entering negotiations with either of the top two. Although Mr Scholz’s claim may look stronger, nothing is certain yet. Weeks of negotiations may lie ahead, and neither a “traffic-light” coalition headed by the SPD nor a “Jamaica” combination led by the CDU/CSU looks ideologically coherent.

One two-party combination would be able to muster a majority: the SPD and the CDU/CSU. The pair have governed in such a “grand coalition” with the conservatives as the senior partner—and, of course, Angela Merkel as chancellor—since 2013. But neither side is keen to continue the experience. Whatever the hues of the coalition that eventually emerges, only when a new government is formed will Mrs Merkel stand down after 16 years in office.

Sources: German Federal Returning Officer; The Economist