Nationalists are set for a historic win in Northern Ireland's vote

THE PUNDITS and the psephologists are all gearing up. On May 5th voters in England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls in local elections: a bad result for the Conservatives could stoke unease among Tory MPs about Boris Johnson’s leadership after his breach of covid-era lockdown rules. But another election taking place that day is likely to prove more significant. For voters in Northern Ireland could choose as the biggest party one that does not want Northern Ireland to exist.

For the past 101 years, a pro-British (or unionist) party has won every election to Stormont, the province’s governing assembly. And for the past 19 years the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has always been the victor. If the polls are accurate, that is about to change.