The swing states that will help predict the election outcome

DONALD TRUMP is likely to be a one-term president. At least, that is what The Economist's election-forecasting model predicts will be the outcome of America’s election on November 3rd. Of course, that prediction rests on several assumptions, including that the polls this year are not wildly off, that everyone who plans to vote is able to cast a ballot and that those ballots are counted. Although it is hard for a quantitative election forecast to take these factors into account before the election, early returns can provide some guidance on the final outcome, even before polls close.

To track and update our understanding of the race in real time, The Economist has built a statistical model that updates the results of our pre-election forecast with final election results from the states as they come in. The model operates on the assumption that we can predict how the night will unfold based on how closely the actual election results match our original projections. If the early returns are consistent with the polls, our forecasts will remain largely unchanged. If not, the model will adjust our state-by-state predictions, as well as our prediction of the overall winner.