Will Israel’s agony and retribution end in chaos or stability?

In a static decades-long conflict that has rotted for the past 20 years, it can be hard to believe that real change is possible. Be in no doubt, however, that Hamas’s murderous assault has blown up the status quo between Israel and the Palestinians. The coming weeks will determine whether war in Gaza sinks the Middle East deeper into chaos or whether, despite Hamas’s atrocities, Israel can begin to create the foundations for regional stability—and, one day, peace.

Change is inevitable because of the gravity of Hamas’s crimes. More than 1,200 Israelis, most of them civilians, many of those women and children, were murdered in their homes, on the street, in kibbutzim, at a music festival. Perhaps 150 more have been dragged to Gaza and shut in makeshift dungeons. Israel’s belief that it could indefinitely manage Palestinian hostility with money and air strikes crumpled early on October 7th, as the first Hamas bulldozer breached the security fence. Hamas has chosen mass murder and there is no going back.