The military gap between Russia and Ukraine is vast

As russia continues to wage war in Ukraine, the fighting has not been as one-sided as might have been expected. Despite being outgunned and outnumbered, Ukraine inflicted more casualties in 24 hours than Russia suffered over eight years of engagements in Syria. Ukraine’s anti-tank weapons have presented serious resistance to Russia’s advances in the north and east. This may strike some as surprising. On paper, Ukraine’s military budget is smaller than that of city-state Singapore.

But nominal spending figures dramatically understate some countries’ capabilities, by failing to account for the fact that military costs vary. To compare capabilities fairly, Peter Robertson of the University of Western Australia has devised “military purchasing power parity (PPP)”. This adjusts defence budgets for how they are allocated among wages, operating costs and equipment, and how local prices vary in each of these areas.

Use these figures, and the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian spending shrinks. Wages in both Ukraine and Russia are lower than in America, the benchmark for the calculations. Construction and maintenance are cheaper as well. But Ukraine spends a higher share of its budget on wages—which are lower than in America and Russia—than it does on kit, which is more even in cost. In nominal terms its total defence spending is 9.6% of Russia’s. Adjusted for costs, that figure more than doubles to 20.6%.

Military PPP ratios are not perfect. Some guesswork is required when estimating both total spending and the proportion of resources going to different areas. Aid from outside, often given in kind, is hard to score. Some military assets provide value for years, and some, such as nuclear weapons, have a quality all of their own. But so, too, does leadership—and the will to fight. ■

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