How the Pentagon thinks about America’s strategy in the Pacific

How to prevent war with China? And how to win if one breaks out? As American strategists turn to the map, one school argues for holding the “first island chain” that girdles China, from Japan to Malaysia; others prefer to draw the line at the second chain, which runs from Japan to New Guinea. The first is populous and important economically but also vulnerable, lying well within the “weapons engagement zone” of many Chinese missiles; the second is safer and offers more certain access—including American outposts such as Guam. To judge from a flurry of moves by America and its allies, the answer is: redouble the defences of the first chain, but also strengthen the second.

In defence terms, America’s “pivot to Asia” is not a single move, but a weaving of initiatives—with overlapping bi-, tri-, quadri- and multilateral deals—to create an ever-thickening lattice on China’s periphery. Some deals are modest; many are uncertain if tested in war. But they amount to the “fortification of America’s forward defence perimeter in the western Pacific”, says a senior American defence official.