Northern Ireland’s unhappy centenary

JUST AS THE pen is mightier than the sword, so arrogant stupidity can do a cause more damage than its opponent’s guns and bombs. Northern Ireland’s 100th anniversary falls next month, and the survival for a century of the six-county state which few expected to last should have been a moment of triumph for unionists. But the province’s streets have been lit by riots, and reunification of the island of Ireland seems likelier than it has for decades. Remarkably, it is a unionist leader who has done more to advance that nationalist ideal than decades of republican terrorism.

More likely does not mean that a united Ireland is on the horizon. Polling is inconsistent. Last year a face-to-face survey in Northern Ireland showed 29% support for reunification; an online poll in January put the figure at 42% (see chart). Few believe that nationalists would win a snap referendum.