Europe is caught between Putin and Trump

RUSSIA iS BECOMING more dangerous, America is less reliable and Europe remains unprepared. The problem is simply put, but the scale of its solution is hard to comprehend. The security arrangements based on NATO that emerged from the second world war—and have prevented a third—are so much part of Europe’s fabric that remaking them will be an immense task. European leaders urgently need to jettison their post-Soviet complacency. That means raising defence spending to a level not seen in decades, restoring Europe’s neglected military traditions, restructuring its arms industries and preparing for a possible war. The work has barely begun.

The murder of Alexei Navalny, Russia’s main opposition leader, in a penal colony on February 16th ought to have shattered any remaining illusions about the ruthlessness and violence of Vladimir Putin. As the fighting enters its third year, Russia is winning in Ukraine. Having put the economy on a war footing, Russia’s president is spending 7.1% of GDP on defence. Within three to five years, Denmark’s defence minister has said, Mr Putin could be ready to take on NATO, perhaps by launching hybrid operations against one of the Baltic states. His aim would be to wreck NATO’s pledge that if one country is attacked, the others will be ready to come to its aid.