The invasion of Ukraine has helped entrench Emmanuel Macron

THERE WAS no bass beat to pump up the audience, nor banked rows of flag-waving supporters. Emmanuel Macron’s first campaign event since he declared formally on March 3rd that he is running for re-election as president next month was a low-key affair. In a municipal hall (and former vaccination centre) in the town of Poissy, west of Paris, he took mostly friendly questions from a modest audience of some 250 people. The first two raised a matter of great concern during this campaign: Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Anxiety about the war has turned Mr Macron’s campaign for re-election, at a two-round vote on April 10th and 24th, into what increasingly looks like a foregone conclusion. By March 15th The Economist’s forecasting model put his chances of winning at 97%. Even as a candidate, he is spending more time telephoning world leaders than shaking hands on the campaign trail. Rivals are struggling to find the right tone to criticise his leadership. “He’s hanging over this campaign at such a height that it’s very difficult to get at him,” grumbles a member of a rival team.