Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing record-high food prices

Global food prices, rising even before the war in Ukraine, are now soaring. According to an index compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), a UN agency, in February they reached a historic high. In March they blew past it. The index surged by about 13%, the biggest increase since the FAO began counting in 1990. The Economist’s own commodity-price index, which tracks food prices on a weekly basis, shows that food prices peaked in the week of March 8th.

Much of the rise is in the price of cereals. The FAO’s index for them rose by 17% in March. The price of wheat alone increased by almost 20%, reflecting the fact that Ukraine and Russia made up a third of the global wheat market between 2018 and 2020, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute. The cost of maize and barley, the other big cereal exports from the Black Sea region, increased by 19% and 27% respectively.

Prices are likely to remain high. The FAO reckons that a fifth of Ukraine’s wheat harvest this season will be lost because of the war, and future harvests in both Ukraine and Russia are in jeopardy. Disruptions to fertiliser supply from Russia, a major exporter, will add to inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, the cost of vegetable oils soared by 23% in March, partly because of poor harvests in South America, and droughts have caused additional difficulties.

Poorer countries that rely on food imports are suffering the most. Sri Lanka’s government is on a precipice; Egypt has turned to the IMF. Others are restricting food exports. The World Bank counts 53 new food-related trade restrictions since the war began. In previous food-price crises, such as those of 2008 and 2011, such measures backfired, with prices rising further as a result. There is little reason to think this time will be different. ■

For a look behind the scenes of our data journalism, sign up to Off the Charts, our weekly newsletter. Our recent coverage of the Ukraine crisis can be found here.