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The race for the Senate is very close

Explore the findings of our model of the race to control Congress

Last updated on November 8th 2022

October 31st 2022: We have updated the methodology behind our congressional forecast.
 Read about the changes to our model here.

Simulated Senate seats won
Each day, we run 10,000 simulated elections based on polling, demographics, fundraising and historical results. These statistics reflect the outcomes of those simulated elections.

Average prediction

Dem

Rep

50 seats*
4244464852545658 49.249.2 50.850.8

2020 Senate results

5050 5050
Democrats win
in 43 out of 100 simulations
Republicans win
in 57 out of 100 simulations
Predicted to win 45⁠–⁠54 seats Predicted to win 46⁠–⁠55 seats
*The vice president, Kamala Harris, breaks 50-50 ties for the Democrats
Predicted range covers 95% of simulations
Chance of winning by race
Each state has two senators, but only a third of Senate seats are up for election in any year. Republicans currently hold most of this year’s seats, giving the Democrats an advantage. Still, to keep the majority Democrats must hang on to seats in places like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, or pick up seats in states such as Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Dem
Rep
Simulations
Safe
9
17
99+ in 100
Very likely
1
1
85–99 in 100
Likely
2
3
65–85 in 100
Uncertain
2
<65 in 100
36 seats not up for election 29 seats not up for election 50 seats for majority
Not up for election
Party change likely
Uncertain
ALAL ARAR CTCT FLFL HIHI IDID IAIA KYKY MEME MAMA MTMT NYNY OHOH PAPA SCSC TNTN WAWA WVWV AZAZ CACA COCO GAGA ILIL ININ MIMI MSMS NENE NVNV NJNJ NMNM OKOK OROR TXTX UTUT VAVA KSKS WIWI LALA MDMD MNMN MOMO NHNH RIRI NCNC NDND WYWY VTVT SDSD AKAK DEDE
Senate forecasts over time
The Democrats face strong headwinds in trying to keep control of the Senate. The president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections. Pessimism about the economy will not help them either. However, in key races Republicans have nominated potentially unelectable fringe candidates. Moreover, the Supreme Court’s decision to permit tighter abortion restrictions has energised Democratic voters.

Chance of winning a majority

0 25 50 75 100 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Election day Election day 8th 8th Dem 43% Dem 43% Rep 57% Rep 57%

Forecast number of seats

44 46 48 50 52 54 56 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Election day Election day 8th 8th Dem 49 Dem 49 Rep 51 Rep 51
Sources: Clerk of the House of Representatives; Congressional Quarterly; MIT Election Lab; VoteView; Gary Jacobson; Ballotpedia; Daily Kos Elections; OurCampaigns; state election records; Corwin Smidt; American National Election Studies; Polidata; RealClearPolitics; DC Political Report; FiveThirtyEight; US Election Atlas; Huffington Post Pollster; Congressional District Religiosity Dataset; American Community Survey; United States Census; Wikipedia; Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections; Carl Klarner; Federal Election Commission; Joseph Bafumi; Roper Centre; The Economist

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