Trump v Biden: who’s ahead in the polls?

Last updated on April 20th 2024

Latest polling averages, %

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On November 5th Americans will elect their next president. The contest will feel familiar: the main two candidates are the same as in 2020. Joe Biden, the incumbent, faced no viable competition for the Democratic nomination. His predecessor in office, Donald Trump, easily saw off a crowded field in the Republican primary. This will be the first rematch election in almost 70 years. After Mr Trump lost the previous election, his supporters tried to overturn the result. He faces federal charges over his alleged participation in that scheme, as well as three other criminal cases. His first criminal trial got under way in April. Mr Biden’s presidency has been defined by high inflation, big industrial-policy bills and turmoil abroad, in Afghanistan, Ukraine and the Middle East. Both men are unpopular. The election will be less a popularity contest than a referendum on which man Americans think is the least bad option.
The Economist is tracking the contest. Here you can find the latest polls, though it should be noted that pre-election polls have limited predictive power for the final result until the end of the summer in an election year. If you are interested in contests elsewhere, visit our UK election forecast. And for American election terms, wonkish and whimsical, explained in plain English see our A-Z of US politics.

Voting intention, %

Key dates

The election is still many months away, but with the two candidates now in effect decided, the campaign can begin in earnest.

Jul 15th
Republican National Convention
Typically a four-day pageant for the party’s chosen nominee, the party will formally select a presidential and vice-presidential candidate in Milwaukee.
Aug 19th
Democratic National Convention
Similar to the Republican convention a month earlier, the Democrats will formally nominate Mr Biden as their presidential candidate in Chicago.
Sep 16th
First presidential debate
The two main candidates are supposed to meet for three of these over the next month, hashing out important issues (or at least trading insults) for 90 minutes each time. Their vice-presidential candidates will also debate once.
Nov 5th
Election day
Polls open on a Tuesday in early November, though early voting and mail-in ballot initiatives will mean many Americans will have already voted. Counting ballots will go on for weeks in some states.
Jan 6th 2025
Results certification
Once all votes are counted, the results must be certified by Congress. Normally a pro-forma event, in 2021 Mr Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol building to stop the certification. He is on trial for his alleged role in the attack.
Jan 20th 2025
Inauguration
The new (well, newly re-elected) president will be sworn into office for his second term on the steps of the Capitol building in Washington, DC.

The candidates

Joe Biden

President

Joe Biden, at 81, will be the oldest ever major-party presidential candidate, breaking his own record set in 2020. Mr Biden won a seat in the Senate at the age of 30 and held it for over three decades. He made failed bids for president in 1988 and 2008, and served as Barack Obama’s vice-president. Despite a reputation as a centrist Democrat, in office he has pushed to expand the state and lobbied for unions. He has also led an international coalition to support Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. Although he promises to “finish the job” if re-elected, many voters think the job may finish him.

Donald Trump

Former president

Donald Trump’s extraordinary campaign follows his no less remarkable term as America’s 45th president, which concluded shortly after his supporters staged an armed attack on the Capitol. His alleged role in instigating the attack and a broader effort to overturn results of the 2020 election resulted in two criminal indictments, in federal court and Georgia state court. He faces two others, totalling 91 felony charges. The 77-year-old denies all wrongdoing. Mr Trump is a self-proclaimed billionaire, who made (and lost) much of his money in real estate, before he became a reality-TV star. This time his campaign pairs familiar culture-war issues (building a border wall, “left-wing gender insanity”) with fresh grievances (against the lawyers prosecuting his cases and the judges overseeing them).

Sources: FiveThirtyEight; national polls; The Economist

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