A new low for global democracy

GLOBAL DEMOCRACY continued its precipitous decline in 2021, according to the latest edition of the Democracy Index from our sister company, EIU. The annual survey, which rates the state of democracy across 167 countries on the basis of five measures—electoral process and pluralism, the functioning of government, political participation, democratic political culture and civil liberties—finds that more than a third of the world’s population live under authoritarian rule while just 6.4% enjoy a full democracy. The global score fell from 5.37 to a new low of 5.28 out of ten. The only equivalent drop since 2006 was in 2010 after the global financial crisis.

For the second year in a row, the pandemic was the biggest source of strain on democratic freedom around the world. Through lockdowns and travel restrictions, civil liberties were again suspended in both developed democracies and authoritarian regimes. Many, but not all, citizens have tolerated emergency rules and the expansion of state powers. Divisions are becoming entrenched between those who favour precautionary policies like lockdowns and vaccine mandates and those who are hostile to state interference and any reduction in personal freedoms. At the beginning of 2021, covid-related demonstrations had already been held in at least 86 countries; by the end of the year, protests coalescing around the anti-vax movement were raging from Austria to Australia.

Nordic countries continue to dominate the top of the ranking and three Asian countries bring up the rear: North Korea was dislodged from the bottom of the table for the first time by a coup in Myanmar and the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Coups also made a comeback in Africa. But it is Latin America that recorded the steepest decline in 2021, as measured by the index. The region’s weak commitment to democracy has allowed illiberal populists to thrive and a busy election calendar didn’t always advance the cause of democracy. Pedro Castillo’s narrow victory in Peru in June was contested for weeks by his opponent, Keiko Fujimori, and the Nicaraguan poll in November was a sham. Chile was downgraded to a “flawed democracy” partly because of low voter turnout in its deeply polarised elections, and Haiti is still in political crisis after the assassination of the president, Jovenel Moïse.

North America fared only slightly better. Despite riots in the Capitol and attempts by the departing president Donald Trump to overturn the election results, the inauguration of Joe Biden proceeded smoothly and America’s democracy score only fell by 0.07 points. Canada suffered a far bigger setback, of 0.37 points. Again, pandemic restrictions were the main cause of frustration and disaffection. According to the World Value Survey, which is used in some of the quantitative sections of the EIU’s survey, just 10.4% of Canadians felt that they had “a great deal” of freedom of choice and control. More alarming, 13.5% expressed a preference for military rule.

The EIU’s report identifies a number of threats to democracy in 2022 and beyond. The fall in Canada’s index score reflected popular disaffection with the status quo and a turn to non-democratic alternatives. The trucker blockade in Ottawa may presage more political upheaval. But the biggest challenge to the Western model of democracy over the coming years will come from China. After four decades of rapid growth it is the world’s second-biggest economy; within a decade the EIU forecasts that it will overtake America. If China’s absence from Mr Biden’s recent Summit for Democracy is anything to go by, the West is not looking to engage it. China’s response to being snubbed was to declare the state of American democracy “disastrous”.