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Which European countries know the least about climate change?

A new survey finds people underestimate the scientific consensus

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Milan, italy’s second city, turned off half its public fountains this week in an attempt to save water. Amid a fierce heatwave, some Italian cities have also placed restrictions on air-conditioning. France and Germany have recently broken temperature records. The vast majority of scientists agree that these heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense as a result of human-made climate change. Do the public agree?

According to a report by the Policy Institute, a think-tank at King’s College London (KCL), people vastly underestimate the scientific consensus. Researchers surveyed 12,000 people in six countries—Britain, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Norway and Poland—about their views on climate change. The average guess was that a mere 68% of scientists think that “human-made climate change is happening”. The true proportion is 99.2%, according to an analysis of scientific literature.

Britons were the farthest off, with an average estimate of 65%; Irish respondents were closest, with 71%. Across all countries, the majority agreed that climate change is mainly caused by humans. But the proportion who did so ranged from 82% of Italians to just 61% of Norwegians.

Norwegians were sceptical on other questions, too. Almost a third said they would never vote for a party with strong environmental policies, compared with a fifth elsewhere. Only one in four said that their country is already being harmed by climate change, compared with more than half of Italians. Norwegians were also the least likely to agree that climate change is already harming them personally.

The report demonstrates the divide between countries that have seen faster change in their climate and those where people feel largely unaffected by it. “One of the most powerful drivers of concern and support for action is actually seeing the effects,” says Bobby Duffy of KCL. Europe’s hot summer is unpleasant. But it could also increase support for policies to reduce the risk of future ones.

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