A thaw in Britain’s frozen union

Outsiders watching Britain in recent years have toyed with a gloomy calculation. Which would survive longer: the ancient Conservative and Unionist Party, or the even older United Kingdom that it governs? The Tories love the union, but the shocks of their 12 years in office—the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, the Brexit referendum in 2016 and Boris Johnson’s scandal-prone premiership—stirred nationalist sentiments. It was an unforgiving dynamic: the more Conservative dominance in England seemed assured, the more likely it seemed Britain would fracture. The party or the country: something had to give.

It has. The Tories’ popularity has crumbled. Polls point to a landslide majority for Labour if an election were held tomorrow. A new era in Britain’s territorial politics is opening up, and the union has a reprieve and a chance of renewal.