Taiwan’s presidential election will be a three-way race after all

The question of who will be Taiwan’s presidential candidates for the election due next month was finally settled on November 24th. After a breakdown in last-ditch negotiations between the island’s main opposition leaders, there will be a three-way race. Hou Yu-ih of the Nationalist Party, or KMT, and Ko Wen-je of the upstart Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) will run against William Lai, the vice-president and candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of Foxconn, a giant electronics-maker, who had campaigned as an independent, has withdrawn.

The presidential election, which is based on a direct, first-past-the-post system, has the potential to redefine Taiwanese relations with China at a fraught time. In the face of rising Chinese aggression, both opposition parties would adopt a more compromising stance towards the mainland. Both accuse the DPP of endangering Taiwan by being too “anti-China”. The island-state must find a “safe balancing-point” between China and America, Mr Ko said in a recent television interview. With polls suggesting a combined opposition ticket would have started in the lead, much had therefore been riding on the negotiations between Mr Hou and Mr Ko to combine forces. A weighted poll-of-polls conducted between November 10th and 25th put Mr Lai on 32.33%, Mr Hou on 30.25%, and Mr Ko on 24.56%. Yet the talks fell apart over both opposition leaders’ demand to be the top dog.