America braces for Taiwan’s election—and vice versa

The year 2022 brought the war in Ukraine; 2023 the one in Gaza. Will 2024 add a crisis over Taiwan? The self-governing island will hold elections on January 13th, as will America on November 5th. Both polls will raise the geopolitical heat at a time of military tension across the Taiwan Strait and deepening rivalry between America and China.

Many in Washington worry that a clash over Taiwan looms, despite efforts by the American and Chinese presidents, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, to stabilise relations at a summit in November. China claims the island as its own, and America says Mr Xi has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to develop the means to invade Taiwan by 2027. American commanders, worried about the shifting military balance, talk of a “window of vulnerability” in the second half of the decade. Yet conflict could erupt sooner, if the delicate balance between Taiwan, China and America is upset.