A controversial general is likely to be Indonesia’s next leader

At first blush, it did not seem too alarming. At Asia’s leading security conference last year, held in a glitzy ballroom at the Shangri-La hotel in Singapore, Indonesia’s defence minister, Prabowo Subianto, proposed a peace plan for Ukraine. Clad in a western suit and traditional peci cap, he then argued for an immediate ceasefire to establish a demilitarised buffer zone. Both Russia and Ukraine would withdraw 15km from their forward positions. The United Nations would send peacekeepers and organise a referendum to decide which country owned the disputed territory. China, a big investor in Indonesia in recent years, lauded Mr Prabowo’s vision. Ukraine’s defence minister labelled it “a Russian plan” and “strange”.

The oddest part of Mr Prabowo’s speech was not that it appeared to constitute impromptu support for Vladimir Putin. It was that it contradicted the official policy of Indonesia, which had voted to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the UN. Mr Prabowo, who is the favourite to win a presidential election on February 14th, had consulted neither the current president, Joko Widodo (“Jokowi”), nor Indonesia’s foreign ministry. For some Asia strategists, his outburst was a promise of volatile new leadership in the world’s fourth-most populous country.