Russia’s opposition has lost a crucial leader but gained a martyr

“IF IT HAPPENED, if they decided to kill me, it means that we are unbelievably strong at that moment,” Alexei Navalny once told an interviewer, on one of the many occasions he was asked about being assassinated. The answer was vintage Navalny: ever hopeful in the face of existential terror. But now that it has happened, now that Mr Navalny has been pronounced dead in an Arctic prison, it is Vladimir Putin, his longtime nemesis, who appears all too strong.

Throughout more than two decades in power, Mr Putin has waged a war against his opponents at home. Mr Navalny’s death on February 16th leaves the embattled Russian opposition without its most effective and charismatic leader in a generation. The tide also appears to be turning in Mr Putin’s favour in his war abroad against Ukraine. Early on February 17th Oleksandr Syrsky, the new commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, announced a withdrawal from the embattled eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, handing Russia its biggest gain in nearly a year. Meanwhile, Republicans in America’s House of Representatives continue to block much-needed military aid for Ukraine. Mr Putin is poised to use a presidential election next month to claim a mandate for his leadership on both fronts.