Will Israel retaliate against Iran, or hold back?

“TAKE THE WIN”, President Joe Biden is reported to have urged Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, in the immediate aftermath of Iran’s huge drone and missile attack, according to Axios, an American news outlet. Some 99% of the 300 or more Iranian weapons that were launched at Israel were successfully intercepted, according to Israeli officials. Those that landed caused only minor damage at the Nevatim air base in the south of the country, which remains fully operational. The main casualty was a seven-year-old bedouin girl, seemingly wounded by falling debris. Israel had “demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks,” Mr Biden said.

Behind his compliments lies America’s desire to avoid an Israeli retaliation that could lead to a terrifying regional escalation and drag Uncle Sam deeper into the Middle East. Yet after a state-on-state confrontation between the two main military powers in the region, things may not be that simple. Israel worries its deterrent power has been dealt a blow, and may feel forced to react, ideally without estranging the group of Arab and Western countries that helped in its defence. On April 14th its war cabinet was wrestling with this dilemma. And like it or not the attack redraws the rules of deterrence in the region and shows how America will have a vital role in any regional effort to contain Iran.