China is watching closely who will be Taiwan’s next president

By Alice Su

On January 13th 2024 Taiwan’s voters will elect a new president. The stakes are high. Tensions between China and America may reach a critical point in the next four years. America’s intelligence agency, the CIA, has said that Xi Jinping wants China’s military to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Taiwan’s next president will determine the island’s strategy to prevent that invasion, and preserve its sovereignty and democracy.

Taiwan’s two main parties, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and opposition Kuomintang (KMT), have outlined opposing cross-strait strategies. The pro-independence DPP favours strengthening relations with America and its allies while building military deterrence through increased defence spending and reform. The pro-unification KMT promises to relieve tensions by reopening dialogue with China on the basis that the two sides of the strait belong to one country. The KMT has said that this vote is a choice between “peace or war”, while the DPP calls it a choice between “democracy or autocracy”. Both parties suggest that the other’s election will lead to Taiwan’s demise, either by provoking a Chinese attack or by accelerating unification.